Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 46.8% vs Aho 51.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 18-14 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Rossi 66.5%
Defensive zone
Rossi 71.0%
Neutral zone
Rossi 71.8%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Rossi
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
18
(32 meetings)
14
18
Rossi
Aho
Last 10: Rossi 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
5
Rossi
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
7
5
Rossi
Aho
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
8
Rossi
Aho
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (2,180)
50.2% (6,646)
-3.4%
Power Play
47.1% (189)
58.9% (1,310)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (44)
46.5% (465)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Rossi is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,558).
Rossi shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Rossi
Aho
Home
47.8% (1,225)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
45.4% (1,188)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Rossi
Aho
P1
47.1%
51.1%
P2
44.7%
52.1%
P3
48.2%
50.8%
OT
45.8%
48.9%
Final 5 min
44.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
46.0%▼
51.0%
46.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:23 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:24 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 16:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |