Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Jankowski 50.4% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.1%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 70.0%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 58.5%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Nelson
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
8
(26 meetings)
18
8
Nelson
Jankowski
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Jankowski
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Jankowski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
2
Nelson
Jankowski
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
51.5% (3,490)
-3.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
53.7% (95)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
42.7% (534)
+1.1%
On even strength, Jankowski has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Jankowski is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,549).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jankowski
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.8% (1,961)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
49.1% (2,158)
By Period
Nelson
Jankowski
P1
48.7%
49.8%
P2
48.6%
51.1%
P3
47.7%
50.3%
OT
45.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 12:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2018 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |