Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.1% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 50.8%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 65.3%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 51.1%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Jankowski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Jankowski
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Jankowski
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (555)
57.1% (368)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.2% (96)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (46)
50.0% (10)
+4.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Jankowski is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Jankowski shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Stamkos
Home
53.2% (331)
53.9% (230)
Away
54.2% (284)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Jankowski
Stamkos
P1
52.7%
56.7%
P2
55.8%
54.1%
P3
52.5%
59.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:43 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |