Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Jankowski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Jankowski
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (555)
58.7% (858)
-5.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.8% (285)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (46)
62.9% (35)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jankowski is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Jankowski shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Hertl
Home
53.2% (331)
60.1% (599)
Away
54.2% (284)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Jankowski
Hertl
P1
52.7%
52.4%
P2
55.8%
63.9%
P3
52.5%
58.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |