Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Kastelic 53.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 59.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 86.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 74.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Cirelli
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Cirelli
Kastelic
Last 6: Cirelli 5-1 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
5
0
Cirelli
Kastelic
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Cirelli
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
55.4% (345)
-5.5%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
50.0% (4)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
35.3% (17)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Cirelli is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Cirelli shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Kastelic
Home
46.7% (649)
50.6% (162)
Away
53.5% (643)
57.4% (204)
By Period
Cirelli
Kastelic
P1
50.1%
61.5%
P2
51.1%
52.8%
P3
48.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
50.1%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:18 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |