Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.9% vs 59.7%). Look for Strome on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Strome wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.3% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 90.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 82.3%
Neutral zone
Strome 56.8%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Strome
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Strome
Kastelic
Last 5: Strome 4-1 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
4
0
Strome
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Strome
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (890)
60.8% (362)
-4.4%
Power Play
66.9% (311)
83.3% (6)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
56.2% (146)
-14.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Strome is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (391).
Strome shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Strome
Kastelic
Home
55.7% (627)
60.3% (242)
Away
62.5% (586)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Strome
Kastelic
P1
61.7%
58.9%
P2
55.7%
57.3%
P3
60.1%
64.0%
OT
50.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
58.3%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
58.9%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |