Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.5% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Roy 48.4% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 58.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 84.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 71.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
Kastelic
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Kastelic
Roy
Last 10: Kastelic 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
Roy
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
4
Kastelic
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
48.7% (3,719)
+8.3%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
49.5% (283)
+30.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
45.5% (477)
+8.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Kastelic shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Roy
Home
58.7% (904)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Kastelic
Roy
P1
58.6%
50.8%
P2
56.5%
46.3%
P3
55.6%
48.1%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |