Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Faksa 52.4% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 55.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 77.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 70.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Kastelic
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Kastelic
Faksa
Last 10: Kastelic 9-1 Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Faksa
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Faksa
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
5
1
Kastelic
Faksa
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
52.8% (6,681)
+4.2%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
57.7% (291)
+22.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
49.3% (1,372)
+4.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Faksa is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,151).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Faksa
Home
58.7% (904)
52.9% (4,092)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
51.9% (4,252)
By Period
Kastelic
Faksa
P1
58.6%
53.0%
P2
56.5%
52.5%
P3
55.6%
52.0%
OT
53.8%
45.3%
Final 5 min
59.4%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:47 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:12 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |