Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.8% vs 56.0%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 76.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 80.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 54.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kastelic 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Kastelic
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
2
Kastelic
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
56.2% (15,290)
+0.8%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
58.7% (3,457)
+21.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
51.4% (2,826)
+2.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Home
58.7% (904)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Kastelic
O'Reilly
P1
58.6%
55.6%
P2
56.5%
57.0%
P3
55.6%
55.0%
OT
53.8%
62.2%
Final 5 min
59.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:23 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |