Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 47.0%). Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 59.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
McDavid
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Scheifele
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
2
McDavid
Scheifele
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
46.5% (919)
+1.2%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
48.7% (187)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.0% (54)
-1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Home / Away
McDavid
Scheifele
Home
50.0% (412)
46.6% (605)
Away
45.7% (394)
47.4% (555)
By Period
McDavid
Scheifele
P1
48.0%
52.3%
P2
48.5%
45.3%
P3
47.1%
43.9%
OT
50.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 14:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |