Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Duchene 51.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 72.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Scheifele
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Scheifele
Duchene
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Scheifele
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
4
2
Scheifele
Duchene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
51.1% (366)
-4.6%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
61.5% (65)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
16.7% (6)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Scheifele shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Duchene
Home
46.6% (605)
51.7% (201)
Away
47.4% (555)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Scheifele
Duchene
P1
52.3%
49.0%
P2
45.3%
57.1%
P3
43.9%
49.2%
OT
27.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:33 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |