Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 19-13 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 84.9%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 53.2%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 57.9%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Scheifele
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
13
(32 meetings)
19
13
Scheifele
Cates
Last 10: Scheifele 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
7
3
Scheifele
Cates
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
5
Scheifele
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
10
5
Scheifele
Cates
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,077)
44.1% (2,786)
+2.2%
Power Play
50.2% (2,576)
42.9% (254)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
34.9% (373)
+6.7%
On power play, Scheifele has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,862).
Scheifele shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Cates
Home
48.9% (7,678)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
44.7% (7,574)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Scheifele
Cates
P1
48.2%
44.5%
P2
45.6%
43.7%
P3
46.8%
41.2%
OT
42.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
45.6%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:14 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Noah Cates |