Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Erat wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 46.8% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 51.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 88.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 73.8%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Erat
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Erat
Bjugstad
Last 7: Erat 6-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
2
0
Erat
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Erat
2
1
Erat
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Erat
2
0
Erat
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
48.6% (6,646)
-1.9%
Power Play
45.5% (101)
55.2% (829)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (29)
44.3% (614)
-2.9%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Erat is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Erat shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Home / Away
Erat
Bjugstad
Home
53.2% (252)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
37.2% (199)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
Erat
Bjugstad
P1
43.4%
48.9%
P2
45.8%
49.1%
P3
50.0%
48.5%
OT
16.7%
61.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | OT | 02:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Martin Erat |