Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 46.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 82.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 53.4%
Neutral zone
Erat 68.3%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Erat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Erat
O'Reilly
Last 6: Erat 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Erat
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Erat
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
56.2% (15,103)
-9.5%
Power Play
45.5% (101)
58.7% (3,395)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (29)
51.6% (2,769)
-10.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Erat is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Erat shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Erat
O'Reilly
Home
53.2% (252)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
37.2% (199)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Erat
O'Reilly
P1
43.4%
55.5%
P2
45.8%
57.0%
P3
50.0%
55.2%
OT
16.7%
62.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2012 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |