Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs McTavish 49.1% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Nelson
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Nelson
McTavish
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
McTavish
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
McTavish
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
2
Nelson
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
47.6% (617)
+3.2%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
57.8% (102)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
33.3% (6)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (469).
Home / Away
Nelson
McTavish
Home
52.6% (639)
52.2% (389)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Nelson
McTavish
P1
48.3%
50.2%
P2
54.0%
47.9%
P3
50.4%
49.0%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |