Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs McTavish 49.1% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 90.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 73.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 63.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Kastelic
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kastelic
McTavish
Last 6: Kastelic 2-4 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Kastelic
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
McTavish
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
2
Kastelic
McTavish
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
47.6% (617)
+13.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
57.8% (102)
+25.5%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
33.3% (6)
+22.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Kastelic
McTavish
Home
60.3% (242)
52.2% (389)
Away
59.2% (272)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Kastelic
McTavish
P1
58.9%
50.2%
P2
57.3%
47.9%
P3
64.0%
49.0%
OT
53.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
66.4%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:29 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |