Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.4%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 74.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 70.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 50.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
McTavish
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McTavish
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
McTavish
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (618)
49.7% (292)
-2.1%
Power Play
58.3% (103)
50.0% (6)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
47.2% (36)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McTavish shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
McTavish
Bjugstad
Home
52.2% (391)
48.7% (193)
Away
45.2% (336)
50.4% (141)
By Period
McTavish
Bjugstad
P1
50.2%
41.5%
P2
47.7%
57.3%
P3
49.2%
50.0%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |