Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 50.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 58.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
McTavish
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McTavish
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McTavish
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (618)
45.5% (756)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.3% (103)
42.1% (114)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
44.7% (47)
-11.4%
On power play, McTavish has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
McTavish shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
McTavish
Cates
Home
52.2% (391)
46.2% (468)
Away
45.2% (336)
43.9% (449)
By Period
McTavish
Cates
P1
50.2%
46.0%
P2
47.7%
47.5%
P3
49.2%
42.1%
OT
40.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.6%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |