Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 85.0%
Defensive zone
McTavish 81.9%
Neutral zone
McTavish 76.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
McTavish
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
21
(35 meetings)
14
21
McTavish
Hertl
Last 10: McTavish 1-9 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
7
McTavish
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
8
McTavish
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
8
6
McTavish
Hertl
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,790)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.7%
Power Play
52.8% (436)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
46.3% (806)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McTavish is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,158).
McTavish shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
McTavish
Hertl
Home
49.8% (1,680)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
47.4% (1,581)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
McTavish
Hertl
P1
50.0%
53.6%
P2
47.7%
54.2%
P3
48.4%
55.3%
OT
43.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
48.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |