Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 67.6%
Defensive zone
Barzal 52.0%
Neutral zone
Barzal 57.0%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Barzal
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
Barzal
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
53.3% (807)
-12.4%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
47.6% (42)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
46.3% (147)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Barzal shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Barzal
Zibanejad
Home
39.2% (250)
49.8% (466)
Away
41.3% (264)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Barzal
Zibanejad
P1
46.3%
52.9%
P2
36.7%
51.2%
P3
38.5%
51.7%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |