Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.5% vs Paul 53.6% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 69.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 80.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 67.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Barzal
Paul
Last 5: Barzal 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Barzal
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (465)
53.7% (354)
-13.3%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
59.0% (61)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
52.9% (34)
-24.3%
On power play, Paul has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (395).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
38.2% (246)
55.1% (216)
Away
41.3% (264)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
46.3%
54.9%
P2
35.7%
54.5%
P3
38.1%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
40.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
38.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |