Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 15 meetings). Barzal wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Paul 52.2% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 18-14 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 74.6%
Defensive zone
Barzal 70.8%
Neutral zone
Barzal 77.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
18
(32 meetings)
14
18
Barzal
Paul
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
2
Barzal
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
7
Barzal
Paul
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
6
9
Barzal
Paul
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
52.6% (3,823)
-10.7%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
56.2% (484)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
46.9% (576)
-4.6%
On power play, Paul has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
43.2% (1,901)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
40.6%
53.8%
P2
44.6%
51.0%
P3
41.1%
52.2%
OT
27.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:35 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:14 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |