Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.8% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Poehling 46.9% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 72.1%
Defensive zone
Poehling 71.2%
Neutral zone
Poehling 55.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Barzal
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barzal
Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Barzal
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (456)
48.4% (440)
-8.0%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
50.0% (6)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
39.4% (132)
-10.8%
On power play, Poehling has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Barzal shoots right. Poehling is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Barzal
Poehling
Home
38.0% (242)
48.2% (222)
Away
41.3% (259)
45.2% (356)
By Period
Barzal
Poehling
P1
46.6%
54.1%
P2
35.4%
40.5%
P3
38.0%
44.9%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
40.5%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Poehling
58.0%▲
46.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |