Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Poehling 48.0% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 76.1%
Defensive zone
Poehling 78.4%
Neutral zone
Poehling 57.3%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Barzal
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barzal
Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Barzal
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
50.4% (680)
-9.5%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
58.3% (12)
-24.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
38.8% (219)
-10.2%
On power play, Poehling has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Poehling is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Barzal
Poehling
Home
39.2% (250)
47.4% (422)
Away
41.3% (264)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Barzal
Poehling
P1
46.3%
53.3%
P2
36.7%
40.3%
P3
38.5%
50.0%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |