Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Steel 50.6% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 73.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 70.0%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Barzal
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Barzal
Steel
Last 7: Barzal 2-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Barzal
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Barzal
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
52.5% (200)
-11.6%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
71.4% (7)
-37.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
40.0% (45)
-11.4%
On power play, Steel has a +37.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Barzal
Steel
Home
39.2% (250)
49.5% (109)
Away
41.3% (264)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Barzal
Steel
P1
46.3%
49.5%
P2
36.7%
47.5%
P3
38.5%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Sam Steel |