Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 27 meetings). Barzal wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Crosby 53.5% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 36-24 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 90.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 82.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 94.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 90.0%
90.0%
10.0%
Barzal
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
36
(60 meetings)
24
36
Barzal
Crosby
Last 10: Barzal 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
7
9
Barzal
Crosby
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
7
10
Barzal
Crosby
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
10
17
Barzal
Crosby
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
52.8% (18,031)
-10.9%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
57.4% (4,741)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
47.0% (766)
-4.7%
On power play, Crosby has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Barzal shoots right. Crosby is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (8,671).
Home / Away
Barzal
Crosby
Home
43.2% (1,901)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Barzal
Crosby
P1
40.6%
53.6%
P2
44.6%
53.8%
P3
41.1%
53.3%
OT
27.6%
49.6%
Final 5 min
40.0%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:05 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:20 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:36 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 18:28 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 28, 2021 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |