Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 66.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 82.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Barzal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Barzal
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
57.1% (368)
-16.2%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
55.2% (96)
-21.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
50.0% (10)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Barzal shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Barzal
Stamkos
Home
39.2% (250)
53.9% (230)
Away
41.3% (264)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Barzal
Stamkos
P1
46.3%
56.7%
P2
36.7%
54.1%
P3
38.5%
59.2%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
41.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |