Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Thompson 45.2% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 62.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 61.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 59.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Barzal
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Barzal
Thompson
Last 5: Barzal 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Barzal
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Barzal
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
44.6% (661)
-3.7%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
48.4% (95)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
33.3% (33)
-4.7%
On power play, Thompson has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Barzal shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Barzal
Thompson
Home
39.2% (250)
45.7% (411)
Away
41.3% (264)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Barzal
Thompson
P1
46.3%
47.7%
P2
36.7%
45.7%
P3
38.5%
40.5%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
41.1%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |