Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Gourde 46.0% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 79.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 50.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 58.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Barzal
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Barzal
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Barzal
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
47.2% (687)
-6.3%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
45.0% (20)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
33.0% (88)
-4.4%
On power play, Gourde has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Barzal
Gourde
Home
39.2% (250)
44.4% (356)
Away
41.3% (264)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Barzal
Gourde
P1
46.3%
42.2%
P2
36.7%
50.0%
P3
38.5%
44.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |