Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Backlund 49.7% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 86.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 62.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Duchene
Backlund
Last 7: Duchene 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Duchene
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
50.1% (930)
+1.0%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
51.5% (66)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.8% (293)
-31.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +31.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (926).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
51.7% (201)
48.1% (636)
Away
52.5% (236)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
49.0%
45.2%
P2
57.1%
54.2%
P3
49.2%
48.8%
OT
60.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Backlund
46.0%▼
48.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |