Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Granlund 49.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.8%
Defensive zone
Granlund 58.1%
Neutral zone
Granlund 54.8%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Duchene
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
1
Duchene
Granlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Granlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
49.7% (493)
+1.4%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
58.6% (111)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
31.1% (61)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Granlund has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Granlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (445).
Home / Away
Duchene
Granlund
Home
51.7% (201)
54.7% (276)
Away
52.5% (236)
45.8% (389)
By Period
Duchene
Granlund
P1
49.0%
52.2%
P2
57.1%
49.3%
P3
49.2%
47.4%
OT
60.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |