Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Marner 42.7% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Marner leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Marner 54.1%
Defensive zone
Marner 53.5%
Neutral zone
Marner 51.4%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Duchene
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Duchene
Marner
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Marner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
4
Duchene
Marner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
41.7% (496)
+12.2%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
55.6% (18)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
35.4% (65)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Duchene shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Duchene
Marner
Home
55.6% (6,430)
38.0% (321)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Duchene
Marner
P1
54.4%
38.7%
P2
54.5%
41.5%
P3
53.4%
45.5%
OT
56.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2016 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |