Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Barron 48.0% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 92.2%
Defensive zone
Barron 53.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 78.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Duchene
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Duchene
Barron
Last 7: Duchene 3-4 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Barron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
3
Duchene
Barron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Barron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
49.4% (741)
+4.5%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
50.0% (6)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.3% (222)
+6.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Barron is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Home / Away
Duchene
Barron
Home
55.6% (6,430)
45.2% (480)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
50.3% (489)
By Period
Duchene
Barron
P1
54.4%
48.0%
P2
54.5%
50.7%
P3
53.4%
44.7%
OT
56.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |