Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
49.7% (1,038)
+1.4%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
63.7% (157)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
34.4% (32)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
51.7% (201)
53.1% (618)
Away
52.5% (236)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
49.0%
49.3%
P2
57.1%
53.0%
P3
49.2%
50.7%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | OT | 00:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OT | 04:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |