Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 92.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
Last 6: Duchene 5-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
49.7% (292)
+1.4%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
50.0% (6)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.2% (36)
-30.5%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
51.7% (201)
48.7% (193)
Away
52.5% (236)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
49.0%
41.5%
P2
57.1%
57.3%
P3
49.2%
50.0%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |