Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Foligno 49.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.7%
Defensive zone
Foligno 74.6%
Neutral zone
Foligno 57.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Duchene
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Duchene
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
49.5% (291)
+1.6%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
55.8% (43)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.2% (53)
-30.5%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Duchene
Foligno
Home
51.7% (201)
48.9% (178)
Away
52.5% (236)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Duchene
Foligno
P1
49.0%
43.0%
P2
57.1%
55.9%
P3
49.2%
50.0%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |