Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 60.5%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 50.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Duchene
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Duchene
Schmaltz
Last 8: Duchene 4-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Duchene
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
45.9% (697)
+5.2%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
47.9% (117)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
48.0% (25)
-31.3%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Duchene
Schmaltz
Home
51.7% (201)
44.9% (434)
Away
52.5% (236)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Duchene
Schmaltz
P1
49.0%
41.5%
P2
57.1%
46.7%
P3
49.2%
51.1%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |