Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.2%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Roy 51.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 73.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Roy
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
51.9% (547)
-0.8%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
54.1% (37)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
53.3% (92)
-36.6%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +36.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
51.7% (201)
54.0% (328)
Away
52.5% (236)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
49.0%
53.5%
P2
57.1%
51.6%
P3
49.2%
51.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |