Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Thomas 51.7% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 61.0%
Defensive zone
Thomas 58.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 60.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
50.2% (635)
+0.9%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
61.0% (100)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
53.4% (118)
-36.7%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +36.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
51.7% (201)
52.0% (400)
Away
52.5% (236)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
49.0%
49.4%
P2
57.1%
55.2%
P3
49.2%
50.7%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Thomas
48.0%▲
45.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |