Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.2%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Thomas 51.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.9%
Defensive zone
Thomas 57.1%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
50.3% (652)
+0.8%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
61.5% (104)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
54.2% (120)
-37.5%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
51.7% (201)
52.0% (400)
Away
52.5% (236)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
49.0%
49.6%
P2
57.1%
55.4%
P3
49.2%
51.0%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |