Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 8: Duchene 6-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
55.7% (856)
-4.6%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
57.5% (233)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.0% (144)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
51.7% (201)
55.5% (616)
Away
52.5% (236)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
49.0%
58.1%
P2
57.1%
54.9%
P3
49.2%
53.9%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |