Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Strome 45.9% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 73.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 80.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
Duchene
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Duchene
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Strome
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
45.4% (315)
+5.7%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
35.7% (28)
+25.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.0% (4)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Strome is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Duchene
Strome
Home
51.7% (201)
42.6% (188)
Away
52.5% (236)
47.2% (159)
By Period
Duchene
Strome
P1
49.0%
38.6%
P2
57.1%
48.4%
P3
49.2%
46.2%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |