Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 22 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Couturier 52.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 36-30 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.4%
Defensive zone
Couturier 70.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 52.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Duchene
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
30
(66 meetings)
36
30
Duchene
Couturier
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
15
7
Duchene
Couturier
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
8
Duchene
Couturier
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
11
15
Duchene
Couturier
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
52.5% (11,097)
+1.4%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
59.7% (1,280)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
48.5% (1,823)
+0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,936).
Home / Away
Duchene
Couturier
Home
55.6% (6,430)
53.4% (7,171)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
51.8% (7,036)
By Period
Duchene
Couturier
P1
54.4%
52.6%
P2
54.5%
52.6%
P3
53.4%
52.9%
OT
56.3%
49.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 11:32 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 06:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 13:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 01:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |