Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Wright 41.4% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 76.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Duchene
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
39.7% (461)
+11.4%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
41.0% (61)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
0.0% (1)
+16.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Duchene
Wright
Home
51.7% (201)
39.5% (286)
Away
52.5% (236)
40.1% (237)
By Period
Duchene
Wright
P1
49.0%
40.2%
P2
57.1%
36.7%
P3
49.2%
42.9%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |