Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.5%). Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (55% H2H, 33 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Crosby 53.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 46-42 in 88 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 59.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.5%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Duchene
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
42
(88 meetings)
46
42
Duchene
Crosby
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
13
14
Duchene
Crosby
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
15
13
Duchene
Crosby
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
18
15
Duchene
Crosby
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
52.8% (18,031)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
57.4% (4,741)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
47.0% (766)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,886).
Home / Away
Duchene
Crosby
Home
55.6% (6,430)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Duchene
Crosby
P1
54.4%
53.6%
P2
54.5%
53.8%
P3
53.4%
53.3%
OT
56.3%
49.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 04:58 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 07:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 15:40 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 08:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 17:49 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |