Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kero on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kero shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Kero 46.5% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.6%
Defensive zone
Kero 65.0%
Neutral zone
Kero 58.9%
Result
Tanner Kero favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Duchene
Kero
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Duchene
Kero
Last 6: Duchene 2-4 Kero
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Kero
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kero
0
3
Duchene
Kero
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kero
0
1
Duchene
Kero
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kero
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (10,249)
47.0% (668)
+7.0%
Power Play
56.9% (1,620)
42.9% (7)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (467)
31.9% (47)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kero shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (7,938).
Duchene shoots left. Kero is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kero
Home
55.6% (6,270)
49.1% (332)
Away
52.7% (6,090)
43.3% (390)
By Period
Duchene
Kero
P1
54.5%
47.6%
P2
54.5%
48.8%
P3
53.4%
40.9%
OT
55.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Kero
62.0%▲
48.0%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 05:42 | Neutral | Tanner Kero |