Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Teravainen 44.6% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Teravainen 59.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.5%
Neutral zone
Teravainen 63.3%
Result
Teuvo Teravainen favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Duchene
Teravainen
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Teravainen
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Teravainen
0
1
Duchene
Teravainen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Teravainen
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
43.3% (60)
+7.8%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
33.3% (30)
+28.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
35.7% (14)
-19.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Teravainen shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Teravainen is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (68).
Home / Away
Duchene
Teravainen
Home
51.7% (201)
47.5% (59)
Away
52.5% (236)
28.9% (45)
By Period
Duchene
Teravainen
P1
49.0%
30.3%
P2
57.1%
38.9%
P3
49.2%
45.5%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
37.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Teravainen
32.0%▼
39.0%
39.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Teuvo Teravainen |