Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Marchant on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Marchant shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Marchant 48.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchant 55.3%
Defensive zone
Marchant 89.5%
Neutral zone
Marchant 74.3%
Result
Todd Marchant favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Duchene
Marchant
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Duchene
Marchant
Last 8: Duchene 2-6 Marchant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Marchant
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marchant
0
3
Duchene
Marchant
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchant
0
3
Duchene
Marchant
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Marchant
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
50.5% (368)
+3.4%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
28.6% (7)
+28.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.4% (158)
+6.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +28.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchant shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Marchant is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Duchene
Marchant
Home
55.6% (6,430)
50.3% (302)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
45.1% (246)
By Period
Duchene
Marchant
P1
54.4%
46.3%
P2
54.5%
49.7%
P3
53.4%
48.1%
OT
56.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Marchant
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 03:26 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 18:49 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |