Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Hertl 57.4% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Duchene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Hertl
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Duchene
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
58.5% (845)
-7.4%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
56.2% (281)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
62.9% (35)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hertl
Home
51.7% (201)
60.0% (582)
Away
52.5% (236)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Duchene
Hertl
P1
49.0%
52.1%
P2
57.1%
63.6%
P3
49.2%
58.8%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |