Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +22.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eklund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Eklund 36.0% (+22.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 94.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 94.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 94.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 94.4%
94.4%
5.6%
Duchene
Eklund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Eklund
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Eklund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Eklund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eklund
0
1
Duchene
Eklund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Eklund
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
30.7% (270)
+23.2%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
50.0% (22)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
15.4% (13)
+33.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eklund shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Eklund is 30.0% vs left-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
Duchene
Eklund
Home
55.6% (6,430)
30.8% (169)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
32.4% (136)
By Period
Duchene
Eklund
P1
54.4%
30.0%
P2
54.5%
28.3%
P3
53.4%
37.2%
OT
56.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
25.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Eklund
30.0%▲
28.5%
31.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | William Eklund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 13:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |