Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Savoie wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Savoie 46.9% vs Cates 45.5% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Savoie 52.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 55.5%
Neutral zone
Savoie 50.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Savoie
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Savoie
Cates
Last 5: Savoie 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Savoie
1
0
Savoie
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Savoie
2
0
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Savoie
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (60)
45.5% (756)
-2.2%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
42.1% (114)
+24.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
44.7% (47)
-22.5%
On power play, Savoie has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Savoie is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Savoie shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Savoie
Cates
Home
48.3% (29)
46.2% (468)
Away
39.1% (46)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Savoie
Cates
P1
36.0%
46.0%
P2
39.1%
47.5%
P3
50.0%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
38.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Savoie
40.0%▼
44.4%
42.7%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Matt Savoie |